3:52:43 PM - Thanks for the emails about the error in the table on the left! MA is now correctly with its favorite son!

4:02:12 PM - A common question:

4:41:09 PM - A few more answers to questions:

4:47:59 PM - Just a followup to the turnout answer below. I think high turnout does favor the Democrats, but only when it was not foreseen in advance. Since everyone is expecting a high turnout this time, I don't think that automatically favors the Dems, since the other side could anticipate it and make turnout even higher.

4:55:04 PM - Someone has asked how long it took to decide the 2000 election. I think it was 39 days. If that is wrong, will someone please send an email to correct it?

5:06:40 PM - Thanks to a reader for correcting me - it was 36 days.

5:22:14 PM - More answers:

5:50:24 PM - Someone asks if I think we'll have a winner by midnight. Not likely since the networks will be much more careful before making that call. If we have a winner tonight, I'd say the earliest would be 2:30am.

6:00:41 PM - The polls have closed in the Eastern time zones of Kentucky and Indiana.

6:03:59 PM - Someone asked about voter participation in past elections. Check out this site for info from 1924: http://www.fairvote.org/turnout/preturn.htm

6:17:36 PM - a few more answers:

6:23:51 PM - Q: "What criteria do you use to be confident in calling a state on election night? A: I'll be following the networks (I'm monitoring 4 networks at one time!), and also following along with each state's online election return webpage. You can find your state's online webpage by Googling for "Tennessee Secretary of State" or "TN SOS" - and changing Tennessee to the state you want to find.

6:42:53 PM - I've been asked to weigh in on Zogby's prediction (Kerry with at least 311 electoral votes). My thoughts? It's very possible! They are called "swing states" for a reason!

6:54:04 PM - At 7pm polls will close in Georgia, the rest of Kentucky and Indiana, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, parts of New Hampshire, and the ET part of Florida.

7:03:03 PM - The night has officially started!

7:07:24 PM - NBC is reporting that absentee ballots in Philadelphia are under a TRO and cannot be opened until tomorrow at 9:30am at the earliest!

7:15:59 PM - Q: "With such a high voter turn out could there likely be more 'battle states' than originally predicted?" A: Possibly, but I doubt it! If any of the safe states switches then that candidate is in major trouble!

7:25:08 PM - Some are wondering if SC and VA not being called for Bush yet is a bad sign. Maybe, but more likely is that the networks are being extremely careful to avoid a 2000 repeat. If they are't called soon, it would tend to make me think that Kerry is more competitive in those states than originally thought.

7:30:06 PM - Current VA numbers: http://sbe.vipnet.org/
Bush/Cheney - 20,355 - 53.88%
Kerry/Edwards - 17,128 - 45.34%
Badnarik/Campagna - 171 - 0.45%
Peroutka/Baldwin - 69 - 0.18%
Write Ins - 55 - 0.15%

7:31:18 PM - Polls are now closed in most of North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia

7:35:39 PM - FOX News is reporting that a ballot initiative in Ohio banning gay marraiges and civil unions has passed handily. Good news for Bush?

7:37:02 PM - BTW: TRO=temporary restraining order

7:43:56 PM - WEST VIRGINIA's 5 votes go to BUSH

7:47:52 PM - PLEASE READ MY FIRST POST to find out why some of the map is already colored!

7:50:17 PM - As much as I'd love to explain why the Electoral College is a good thing, I just don't have the time right now! For those writing about it, please check out our ARTICLES page for some good stuff on both sides of the issue.

7:56:42 PM - Polls closing at 8pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, most of Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, the ET part of Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, the rest of New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, the CT part of Texas, and CT part of Florida.

7:57:19 PM - Something to watch for at 8pm: will Maine split its vote this year?

8:04:47 PM - NEW JERSEY's 15 votes to KERRY

8:09:22 PM - If the map doesn't change colors after I list a change, be sure to reload your webpage. If that doesn't work then try reloading while holding down the shift key.

8:22:12 PM - 3 of MAINE's 4 votes go to KERRY. Note that I will not color the map or update the list to the left until the last Maine vote is decided.

8:27:02 PM - At 8:30pm polls will close in Arkansas and the rest of North Carolina.

8:30:04 PM - Please check to see of your question has already been answered either below or in the FAQ before emailing me!

8:41:04 PM - Since some of you aren't taking the hint!!! Let me repeat: "You'll notice that, unlike other sources, we have already projected most of the states to a candidate. Yes, it's possible some of those are wrong, but by focusing on the true Electoral College battlegrounds we can more clearly see what is important. I tried to be overly cautious when deciding which states to not color in. If there was any question in the last few weeks about where the state stood, we left it blank."

8:50:13 PM - Please note: The vote totals above do reflect NJ and WV being called. Only Maine has not been added yet.

8:52:07 PM - Sorry kids, but I can't control how long it takes for the results to come in! The numbers will come in as they will, and I can't make them come faster!

8:57:24 PM - At 9pm polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, the CT part of Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, the MT part Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

9:00:16 PM - CNN is projecting that Colorado's Amendmet 36, a ballot referendum to split their electoral votes, has failed.

9:03:38 PM - A few people have asked why I'm not calling as many states as the networks. Well, if you look at the map I've already called most of the states! The only states I need to call now are the battleground states. For more info on this, read my first post below.

9:15:26 PM - Lots of you want to know how the netwoks can call a state with only a couple of precincts reporting. The answer is exit polling - or asking people who they voted for and why as they walk out of the polls. The networks are being more careful with exit polling data after the 2000 fiasco, but some races can still be called early.

9:43:08 PM - Q: "Are all the networks getting their numbers from the same source, or each one has independent sources? In other words, does it matter what channel we watch?" A: Yes they are getting their numbers from the same sources. However, each network has their own analysts looking at the numbers and determining their state calls independently.

9:55:08 PM - Polls close at 10pm in the MT part of Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, the MT part of Oregon, and Utah.

10:05:13 PM - Answer to common question: The last polls will close at midnight in Alaska.

10:07:42 PM - Please note that electoral vote numbers ARE LISTED in the column on the left.

10:14:41 PM - Please don't email me when a network calls a state! I've got 4 networks going on at once so I'm seeing them all!

10:15:49 PM - Part of Alaska may not close their polls until 1am.

10:47:47 PM - COMPUTER CRASH!!! Please give me a few minutes to recover!

10:48:31 PM - MISSOURI's 11 votes to BUSH; ARKANSAS's 6 votes to BUSH

10:50:37 PM - I have placed 3 out of 4 of MAINE's votes into Kerry's column.

10:57:48 PM - PENNSYLVANIA's 21 votes to KERRY

11:00:07 PM PM - Polls closing at 11pm: California; Hawaii; the rest of Idaho, North Dakota, and Oregon; and Washington.

11:10:12 PM - WASHINGTON's 11 votes to KERRY

11:13:03 PM - Q: "What's the story behind Maine's 3 of 4 electoral votes?" A: Remember that Maine does not use the winner take all system of awarding electoral votes. In Maine, the overall statewide popular vote winner gets 2 electoral votes, and the winner in each Congressional district gets 1 electoral vote. Right now the 2nd Congressional district is up for grabs.

11:23:46 PM - With 95% of the vote in, Bush leads Florida by 5%. Absentee ballots have NOT been included in this number.

11:32:19 PM - Let's start crunching numbers! If Bush wins Florida, Kerry MUST win Ohio. If Kerry lost Florida and Ohio he would have to win almost everything else on the map to win the presidency. If Bush wins Florida but loses Ohio, he would have a tough road to the presidency, but at least have several ways to go.

11:40:18 PM - ABC calls Florida for Bush. We'll hold off for a bit.

11:56:51 PM - All polls, with the possible exception of some parts of Alaska, should be closed at midnight.

12:09:28 AM - OREGON's 7 votes to KERRY

12:12:41 AM - There are still some tie scenarios out there for you out there who love anarchists out there! BUSH wins OH, CO; KERRY wins the rest = 269-269! Or KERRY wins OH, MN, MI, NH, HI; BUSH wins the rest = 269-269!

12:23:39 AM - FLORIDA's 27 votes to BUSH

12:29:38 AM - COLORADO's 9 votes to BUSH

12:31:36 AM - Bush can win the election with Ohio and any other state, including Maine's leftover vote. Or he can tie if he wins OH and Kerry sweeps the rest.

12:40:40 AM - FOX News projects Bush wins OH, Kerry wins last ME vote

1:04:30 AM - OHIO's 20 votes to BUSH

1:05:52 AM - If Bush wins any state or Maine's one elector, he will win. The best Kerry can hope for know is a tie.

1:16:58 AM - It looks like NM or NV will be the state that puts Bush over the top; Kerry may sweep the rest.

1:19:17 AM - Before anything changes, let me mention that President Elect's official projection is 100% accurate so far!

1:27:04 AM - NEW HAMPSHIRE's 4 votes to KERRY; MAINE's final vote to KERRY

1:36:09 AM - With 86% reporting, Bush leads NM 52% to 47%.

1:37:06 AM - With 42% reporting, Bush and Kerry are tied at 49% in NV.

1:38:38 AM - With 71% reporting, Kerry leads 51% to 48% in MI.

1:44:25 AM - With 94% reporting, Bush leads in IA 50% to 49%.

1:46:34 AM - To the person who keeps emailing complaining that CNN has Kerry winning OH - no they don't! Not on the TV and not on the website! And according to the OH election website, Bush's lead has increased by .5% in the last 20 minutes. That's not to say that the OH call might not get pulled at some point, but CNN has made no call yet.

1:53:09 AM - Q: "When will the recounts begin, seeing that both parties have everything geared up to recount and problems have already risen in the computers that are used to vote, will this be another incident like the last time Bush was elected?" A: It seems like Ohio may be the only state that sees a recount. And I have to say that computer problems were not as bad as we were told to expect! In fact they seemed to be less common than with other types of voting machines. I don't expect things to be as bad as they were in 2000. If Bush wins the popular vote and the Electoral College, Kerry will have a hard time trying to overturn Ohio's vote so that he wins the Electoral College but loses the popular vote. Fair? Probably not!

2:01:51 AM - How about this idea from a reader: "Let's call Iowa and New Mexico for Bush, and the rest for Kerry... except Nevada. We'll go to bed with Nevada still outstanding. What do you say?" I'm hopped up on caffeine so I don't know if I can go to bed anytime soon!

2:06:44 AM - CNN reports: "Broken machines and a delay in opening absentee ballots will delay Iowa reporting its final count in the presidential election, state election officials said".

2:08:45 AM - Q: "It is now just past midnight in New Mexico, do you have a positive answer on who won New Mexico???" A: With 93% reporting, Bush leads 52% to 47%. I think some networks don't want to call it yet becasue they are not ready to say that Bush has won the presidency.

2:11:23 AM - I said earlier on this page: "If we have a winner tonight, I'd say the earliest would be 2:30am". We're nearing that point now.

2:16:13 AM - Q: "Why do you have Bush down as winning Ohio? The counting isn't finished in Ohio, so you can't make that call yet. There are still over 100,000 votes to be counted there. Ohio can still tip the election either way." A: I think the reason several sources have given the race to Bush is that his margin so far is more than enough to cover any remaining votes. For example, assume there are 100,000 votes left. Bush is currently leading by about 125,000. Even if Kerry won the outstanding 100,000 votes (which would more likely split more evenly than that) Bush would still win. But who knows! Anything could still happen.

2:27:26 AM - MINNESOTA's 10 votes to KERRY; MICHIGAN's 17 votes to KERRY

2:31:41 AM - If the map doesn't change colors after I list a change, be sure to reload your webpage. If that doesn't work then try reloading while holding down the shift key.

2:33:40 AM - NBC and CNN call Hawaii for Kerry.

2:40:25 AM - HAWAII's 4 votes to KERRY

2:47:42 AM - Oops! Hawaii's color is now fixed!

2:51:28 AM - I think we'll get a call tonight in New Mexico, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Iowa is apparently saying they are done counting for the night.

2:55:13 AM - The Kerry camp has apparently called it a night and will make no more statements until the morning.

3:03:18 AM - Bush has apparently won NM, but no on has called it yet. with 96% reporting Bush leads 275,386 to Kerry's 245,804. If my math is right, that means there are still 21,855 votes left. Even if Kerry got all of those, he would only have 267,659. I'm going to wait a little longer in case something is going on I don't know about, but it seems that Bush has won NM.

3:13:03 AM - Wisconsin appears to be within 0.7%: Kerry 1,378,725; Bush 1,357,791.

3:16:22 AM - NBC just said they are not calling NM because there appears to be a discrepency in the number of votes left. Apparently less votes were cast in this election than in 2000. Since every other state had an increase, they beleive there must be an error somewhere.

3:18:59 AM - In 2000, NM cast about 600,000 votes. This election there are about 550,000 votes.

3:24:19 AM - This website on the Ohio SOS website seems to suggest that there are only 75,000 provisional ballots. Bush leads in Ohio by about 125,000.

3:33:31 AM - NEVADA's 5 votes to BUSH

3:45:30 AM - NBC is reporting that Bush is expected to speak tonight if the networks give him NM or NV.

3:47:13 AM - Several of you want to know where the Nevada call came from. No the networks haven't done it yet. But NPR, Yahoo, The Wall Street Journal, and several other sources have given the state to Bush.

3:50:48 AM - CNN has 99% of Nevada reporting, and Bush ahead by 3%.

3:52:56 AM - Interesting note: Bush's lead in Ohio is bigger than Kerry's lead in Pennsylvania.

4:08:23 AM - Bush leads NM and IA, Kerry leads WI. If this holds the President Elect official projection will have been perfect!

4:27:46 AM - Odd... The networks that gave Bush Ohio will not give him Nevada. The networks that did not give him Ohio have given him Nevada.

4:29:58 AM - If I understood him correctly, Tom Brokaw on NBC just said they will call the states, but won't say if someone has won the election.

4:44:52 AM - I am assuming that FOX News does not want to be the first one to declare Bush the winner. I don't know why NBC is holding back.

4:54:50 AM - CNN is reporting that "New Mexico will not release presidential election results until later Wednesday because thousands of absentee ballots remain uncounted, according to a spokesman for the secretary of state".

5:03:08 AM - Bush need to just make the speech so I can go to bed!

5:14:39 AM - WISCONSIN's 10 votes to KERRY

5:16:44 AM - I don't expect there to be a call in NM or IA tonight. I've heard that Bush's Chief of Staff is about to give a statement and then I'll probably head to bed for a few hours.

5:32:35 AM - All right folks, I am heading to bed with Bush still leading in Iowa and New Mexico, which would make my projection 100% accurate. Good night - see you in a few hours!