I'm still here! Feels like it's been four years since my last updates. I'll be honest. After how some people acted after the 2016 and 2020 elections, I was kind of turned off on covering current elections.

When I started the site it was more about electoral history and institutions. And I'll probably go back to focusing on that. But once every four years on election nights, I may jump back in to answer questions, track the numbers, and talk shop.

So I'm looking forward to hanging out tomorrow night! Unlike previous years, I've going to do the live blog on X/Twitter rather than on the website. And while we'll do all that stuff I mentioned, I'd really like to have some fun as well!

Disclaimer: I'll be retweeting (re-X-ing?) interesting or funny comments about the election I come across, but I'm not going to check these random people's past tweets. So absolutely no endorsement implied!

It's kind of hilarious watching both sides spin the 3-3 tie in Dixville Notch to their advantage!

It's Election Day! That means the time has finally come for the analysts to shut up and let the American people take the spotlight. After today the polls are meaningless. It doesn't matter if a website projects a candidate winning a state if people that support that person don't get off their couch and make the trip to the ballot box. No matter what you expect to happen on election day after listening to people like me all year, you have the real power now. Don't like the predictions? Go vote and change them. Agree with the predictions? Go vote or they won't happen. In the end, no one will remember the analysis, they'll only remember the outcome.

Hopefully within the next 36 hours one of these images will be permanently added to President Elect's 2024 page!

The first polls close soon! So soon we'll have actual data rather than speculation!

Unlike previous years, I'm not going to keep a running map going because, to be honest that was a pain in the neck and this year I'm taking things easy! But I've got my spreadsheet and I'll just be posting a running state by state electoral vote tally on the website.

Like previous years, we will not be starting the tally at 0 to 0. States where the polls are greater than +7 are already colored in for each candidate. In all the elections I've been doing this, we've never had to "undo" a pre-colored-in state, so hopefully that run will continue!

So the starting point for President Elect 2024 is Trump 212, Harris 194.

There are some tie scenarios on the board, but I think they are unlikely this year based on our starting point.

Is anything worse than the beginning of election night coverage when the analysts have to prattle on with hardly any votes in yet?

Interesting exit poll analysis on CNN just now. Biden won independents in Georgia by 9% in 2020. Trump is winning them by 11% this year.

Wow, really nothing to report and the Twitter-verse humor has run dry!

Sorry for being quiet. First, there's not much to say! I'm not sure how these talking heads on TV do it! And second, my son called and we talked for over an hour. It's his first election and it was cool getting to talk shop with him!

Why is CNN being so slow with calls? Fox has it Trump 195-113. CNN says Trump 154-30!

Of states not colored on the map yet: analysts seem to be saying Trump will probably take NC and GA and Harris will take VA

It's looking like that Iowa poll was just an outlier.

Arizona looking like it might go to Trump.

NYT needle seems to like Trump's chances. AZ, GA, IA, NC are almost locks. MI, PA, WI are leaning his way. If that holds, he'd have 305 electoral votes and the win.

NYT needle has MN, NH, NM, VA probably safely in Harris' column. That would put her at 226.

Iowa has been officially called for Trump, our first new state of the night.

GA and NC are all but sure Trump wins. VA is all but a sure Harris win. Not coloring them in yet, but with those included Trump would be leading 250-207.

North Carolina called for Trump. His lead is now 234 to 194.