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The 2000 Electoral College Predictions Scoreboard
James R Whitson / March 21, 2001
The press had some trouble counting the electoral votes on election night. Did they do any better predicting it before hand? For some of those who tried to predict the outcome of the Electoral College in 2000, it's time to see how you did! This analysis includes ABC News, The Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, The Orvetti Report, President Elect, the President Elect computer, Portrait of America, and the Washington Times.

GORE | BUSH indicates a correct prediction.

GORE | BUSH indicates an incorrect prediction.

TOSS indicates no prediction was made because the state was considered a toss-up.

State Actual
Results		 ABC
News		 AP CBS
News		 CNN FOX
News		 NBC
News		 Orvetti
Report		 PE PE
Comp.		 POA Wash.
Times
AL BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
AK BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
AZ BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
AR BUSH TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS BUSH GORE GORE TOSS TOSS
CA GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE
CO BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
CT GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE
DE GORE GORE TOSS GORE GORE TOSS GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE TOSS
DC GORE* GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE
FL BUSH TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH TOSS BUSH
State Actual
Results		 ABC
News		 AP CBS
News		 CNN FOX
News		 NBC
News		 Orvetti
Report		 PE PE
Comp.		 POA Wash.
Times
GA BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
HI GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE
ID BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
IL GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE
IN BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
IA GORE GORE TOSS TOSS TOSS GORE TOSS GORE GORE BUSH BUSH GORE
KS BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
KY BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
LA BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
ME GORE GORE TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS GORE GORE BUSH GORE TOSS GORE
State Actual
Results		 ABC
News		 AP CBS
News		 CNN FOX
News		 NBC
News		 Orvetti
Report		 PE PE
Comp.		 POA Wash.
Times
MD GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE
MA GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE
MI GORE TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS GORE GORE GORE TOSS TOSS
MN GORE TOSS TOSS TOSS GORE TOSS TOSS GORE BUSH GORE TOSS GORE
MS BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
MO BUSH TOSS TOSS TOSS BUSH BUSH TOSS BUSH BUSH BUSH TOSS TOSS
MT BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
NE BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
NV BUSH BUSH BUSH TOSS BUSH TOSS BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
NH BUSH TOSS TOSS TOSS BUSH TOSS BUSH BUSH GORE BUSH BUSH BUSH
State Actual
Results		 ABC
News		 AP CBS
News		 CNN FOX
News		 NBC
News		 Orvetti
Report		 PE PE
Comp.		 POA Wash.
Times
NJ GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE
NM GORE TOSS TOSS TOSS BUSH BUSH TOSS BUSH BUSH BUSH TOSS BUSH
NY GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE
NC BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
ND BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
OH BUSH TOSS BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
OK BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
OR GORE TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS GORE TOSS BUSH BUSH BUSH TOSS TOSS
PA GORE TOSS TOSS GORE TOSS TOSS TOSS BUSH GORE GORE TOSS TOSS
RI GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE
SC BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
State Actual
Results		 ABC
News		 AP CBS
News		 CNN FOX
News		 NBC
News		 Orvetti
Report		 PE PE
Comp.		 POA Wash.
Times
SD BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
TN BUSH GORE TOSS TOSS TOSS GORE TOSS GORE BUSH BUSH TOSS TOSS
TX BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
UT BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
VT GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE GORE
VA BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
WA GORE TOSS GORE GORE TOSS GORE TOSS GORE GORE GORE TOSS TOSS
WV BUSH BUSH BUSH TOSS TOSS GORE TOSS GORE BUSH BUSH TOSS TOSS
WI GORE TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS TOSS BUSH BUSH GORE BUSH TOSS
WY BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH BUSH
State Actual
Results		 ABC
News		 AP CBS
News		 CNN FOX
News		 NBC
News		 Orvetti
Report		 PE PE
Comp.		 POA Wash.
Times
TOTALS
EV's
(states)		 BUSH
271
(30)		 BUSH
209
(24)		 BUSH
214
(25)		 BUSH
205
(23)		 BUSH
225
(27)		 BUSH
241
(26)		 BUSH
209
(26)		 BUSH
297
(32)		 BUSH
298
(33)		 BUSH
284
(32)		 BUSH
220
(27)		 BUSH
239
(27)
GORE
267*
(21)		 GORE
171
(15)		 GORE
179
(12)		 GORE
205
(14)		 GORE
171
(13)		 GORE
241
(16)		 GORE
175
(13)		 GORE
241
(19)		 GORE
240
(18)		 GORE
254
(19)		 GORE
171
(12)		 GORE
189
(14)
- TOSS
158
(12)		 TOSS
145
(14)		 TOSS
128
(14)		 TOSS
142
(11)		 TOSS
88
(9)		 TOSS
154
(12)		 TOSS
0
(0)		 TOSS
0
(0)		 TOSS
0
(0)		 TOSS
147
(12)		 TOSS
110
(10)
* One DC elector abstained from voting.
For the puposes of this analysis, that vote has been placed where it was supposed to go.

I don't mind pointing out that the President Elect computer analysis had the best prediction rate, predicting all 51 states and only missing four. However, I am a little distressed that the computer bested me and the President Elect projections. I also picked all 51 states but missed seven. Our friends at The Orvetti Report were also brave enough to predict every state; they did very well, missing only six.

Judging the other news outlets is almost impossible, since they all refused to predict states they weren't sure about. (If only they had stuck with that on election night!) Collectively, the only states the other eight missed were Iowa, New Mexico, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS:

  • Thirty-three states had a candidate unanimously predicted to win.
  • Two states, Arkansas and Michigan, were called as toss-ups by everyone (excluding the three groups that didn't use toss-ups).
  • The Orvetti Report was the only one to correctly predict that Arkansas would go to Bush.
  • No one was willing to predict Gore might win Florida.
  • No one correctly predicted Gore would win New Mexico.
  • FOX News was the only one to correctly predict that Oregon would go to Gore.
  • President Elect and the PE computer were the only ones to correctly predict that Tennessee would go to Bush.
  • The President Elect computer was the only one to correctly predict that Wisconsin would go to Gore.

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