President Elect's fourth analysis of the 2004 Electoral College vote pitting President George W. Bush against an unnamed Democratic frontrunner shows that if the election were today Bush would be the first popular vote losing president to win a second term.

President Elect predicts that President Bush would win 307 electoral votes and the Democrats would win 231. (Down from 321-217 in May.)

The President's poll numbers have started to slide as the election season begins to get into gear. Some might argue that this drop is due to job performance but it is most likely the usual drop incumbents face when their potential opponents begin to campaign. Most of the states that have moved towards the Democrats in this analysis were states that Gore won in 2000, which tends to corroborate that idea.

There is good news and bad news for the Democrats.

The good news for the Democrats is that eight of the nine states that shifted from the previous analysis shifted toward them. Florida, Louisiana, and Ohio (worth 56 electoral votes) move from the SOLID BUSH to the LEANING BUSH column. New Hampshire and Wisconsin (worth 14 votes) move from the LEANING BUSH to the LEANING DEMOCRATIC column. New York, Oregon, and Washington (worth 49 votes) move from the LEANING DEMOCRATIC to the SOLID DEMOCRATIC column. Only Connecticut moves to the right in this analysis, but even it remains in the LEANING DEMOCRATIC column. That's 119 electoral votes moving towards the left! With 231 electoral votes, the Democratic candidate is only 39 votes away from winning in 2004.

The bad news for the Democrats is that they are 39 votes away from winning. The electoral map above is the map President Elect believes will be the foundation for the 2004 election. The SOLID states will not budge from now until then (barring some unforeseen extraordinary event). The election will play out in the 14 LEANING states, which represent 162 electoral votes. Of the 231 Democratic electoral votes, only 164 are considered SOLID. While this is a big improvement from the previous analysis, it means they will have to win 106 of the 162 LEANING votes to win. The current analysis only has them winning 67.

The good news and the bad news for Bush is more clear cut.

The good news is all Bush has to do is maintain what he has to win. With 212 SOLID votes, the Republicans are in a much better position than the Democrats, needing only 58 of the 162 LEANING votes to win.

The bad news is that most of Bush's LEANING states are not particularly known as friendly Republican states. Iowa and Pennsylvania (now worth 28 votes) voted for Gore in 2000. West Virginia (worth 5 votes) is a traditionally Democratic state. Former President Clinton could hurt the Republicans in his home state of Arkansas (worth 6 votes). And we all remember what happened in Florida (worth 27 votes)!

So in our last analysis before 2004 begins where do things stand? While President Bush has the edge, he by no means has a clear cut victory ahead. The Democrats may need some help, and the LEANING Bush states just might provide it. In other words, it ain't over yet! Political junkies are in for an exciting election - again!

PLEASE NOTE: Wesley Clark joined the race too late to be included in this analysis. The next analysis will be posted in January 2004. In December, look for our next poll asking who the Democratic candidate facing Bush should be.

President Elect's third (subjective, but always educated) analysis of the 2004 Electoral College vote pitting President George Bush against Democrat Howard Dean (the candidate our readers chose in a March and May poll as the most likely Democrat to win) shows that if the election were today Bush would be the first popular vote losing president to win a second term!

After the surprising Republican victories in the 2002 mid-term election and coming off a successful military campaign in Iraq, the President's approval numbers remain strong.

Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont, seems at the same time an odd choice and the perfect choice to put against the popular President. He's brash, blunt, and extremely opinionated. While he is fiscally moderate, most of his social beliefs are on the left side of liberal. As he tries to capture the nomination there are two issues that could hurt him with voters on both sides of the Democratic party spectrum. Liberal Democrats may be uncomfortable with his views on gun control, where he stands firmly with the NRA. Moderate Democrats may be uncomfortable with his views on gay rights; as governor, he signed the law that made Vermont the first state to recognize civil unions for gay couples.

The biggest issue separating Bush and Dean is the recent Iraq war (Dean was the first Democratic candidate to come out strongly against it), and that could be the critical issue in an election between these two. However, Bush's popularity seems tough to beat right now. As history has shown, as we approach the election his numbers will inevitably drop. But the Democratic candidates don't seem to be resonating with the public yet. A poll released in May 2003 asking respondents to name any Democratic presidential candidate found that 66% of the public couldn't name any of them - and Dean was only named by 1%.

President Elect predicts that President Bush would win 321 electoral votes to the Howard Dean's 217. However, of all the current Democratic candidates, we believe Dean has the greatest chance of turning these numbers around and surprising everyone.

After all, it wouldn't be the fist time an unknown Democratic governor of a small state took on a popular President named Bush who had just invaded Iraq - and won!

The next analysis will be posted in September 2003.

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President Elect's second (subjective, but educated) analysis of the 2004 Electoral College vote pitting President George Bush against Democrat Al Gore (the candidate our readers chose in a July poll as the most likely Democrat to win) shows that if the election were today, Bush would be the first popular vote losing president to win a second term!

After the surprising and historic Republican victories in the 2002 mid-term election, President Elect predicts the President would win 306 electoral votes to the former Vice President's 232. The changes from the previous analysis occured in only four states, all of which played roles in the mid-term election:

• Arkansas - moves from the "leaning Gore" column to the "solid Gore" column (+/- 0).
• Florida - moves from the "leaning Gore" column to the "leaning Bush" column (+27).
• Georgia - moves from the "leaning Bush" column to the "solid Bush" column (+/- 0).
• Minnesota - moves from the "leaning Gore" column to the "leaning Bush" column (+10).

What this shift of 37 votes really shows is just how volatile some of the leaning/toss-up states are. Even with Bush's larger lead, things are actually closer than they seem. Regional issues in key states could decide the election.

The next analysis will be posted in May 2003. .

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Yes, you see those numbers on the map correctly -- and no, we didn't plan it that way! President Elect's (subjective, but educated) analysis of the 2004 Electoral College vote pitting President George Bush against Democrat Al Gore (the candidate our readers chose in a July poll as the most likely democrat to win) shows that if the election were today, we might see the first tie since 1800!

There is good news for both sides:

For Gore - if he had won the states our analysis gives him during the 2000 election he would now be president by a vote of 272-266.

For Bush - the changes in the allocation of electoral votes for the 2004 election favor the Republicans more than the Democrats -- if the new numbers had been in effect in 2000, Bush would have won seven more electoral votes.

The next analysis will be posted in November 2002 -- after the mid-term elections.